Arizona New Covid-19 Cases by Week and County to June 29, 2020

July 7,  2020

Here are charts of new Covid 19 cases for each week up to June 29, 2020. Saturday is the end of the week and samples seem to take 5 days or more to be processed and entered in the ADHS database which is my data source. There is a decided increase since the mid May “reopening. After this I will  switch to two week report intervals because of the longer time frame and because it matches better the biological cycle of  the virus.

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Where to Find Covid-19 Statistics

If you look online there are many sites reporting Covid-19 statistics. The websites I’ve listed below are the ones I most often use to cover statistics from the world down to our local Santa Cruz County, Arizona. 

Sources

Why does data differ between  websites? Websites rely upon publicly available data from multiple sources that do not always agree. More frequent updates of a map often result in higher case numbers than may be available from other sources that are updated less frequently. Weekends and holidays can affect recording and reporting frequency.

Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus Research Center
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

World Health Organization (WHO)
https://www.who.int/health-topics/coronavirus

US Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/summary.html

Arizona Department of Health Services
https://azdhs.gov/preparedness/epidemiology-disease-control/infectious-disease-epidemiology/index.php#novel-coronavirus-home

https://www.santacruzcountyaz.gov/732/COVID-19-Novel-Coronavirus

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2-1-1 Arizona Resources for Help Paying Bills, Food, Etc.

I’ve created a page with some information on the 2-1-1 Arizona site which lists resources that may help in paying bills, food banks, or dealing with other problems resulting from the Covid 19 outbreak. Before calling these resources one should call their landlord, if it’s a rent problem, and see if an arrangement is possible. Banks or mortgage companies may have special deferral programs, check out their on-line banking site or call their customer service number. Many utilities have set up payment deferral plans; look for their customer service number on the bill. It’s always best to call before a bill is due. If you contact the resources at this site, be patient; many offices are busy with many calls coming in.

Go to the page. Click here  

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Covid 19 Tests Aren’t 100%

March 26

Here’s a good article from the “Washington Post” about how lab tests are not as straight forward as we often think. No lab test is ever 100% accurate, terms like “sensitivity” and “specificity”are used to describe how many false negatives and false positives can be expected statistically. 

From the Washington Post “A ‘Negative’ Coronavirus Test Result Doesn’t Always Mean You Aren’t Infected.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/science/2020/03/26/negative-coronavirus-test-result-doesnt-always-mean-you-arent-infected/

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Weekly Covid-19 Cases

I’m changing how I report the numbers of Covid-19 cases from daily reports to weekly ones.

During my working career I worked in animal disease outbreaks and eradication programs and, as in human disease outbreaks, we used different reporting cycles as the outbreaks progressed. Early on, case numbers were reported daily, as new cases were discovered showing the rapid movement of the disease. As a routine of testing and surveillance developed, the numbers got larger and reporting would change to weekly reports to reflect the weekly work cycle. In long term efforts, reporting might change to monthly or yearly reports to reflect the life cycle of the affected animals and seasonal effects. 

With Covid-19 daily numbers can fluctuate due to more samples collected on some weekdays than others, reduced weekend schedules, etc. Looking at numbers on a weekly basis smooths out many of the differences and gives a better idea of increases, decreaes or plateaus. Sometimes the weekly reporting is done daily, counting the cases of the immediate past seven days; but I’m going to keep it simple and report each week as it ends on Saturdays.

       I’ve started both charts from March 7, 2020 when the number of to-date reported cases totaled 336 in the US and 4 in Arizona. I could make a similar chart for Santa Cruz County which had 34 reported cases on May 2, but it would have little value as a predictor because a single household with a couple cases could skew the curve out of proportion to its import. Charts from counties with more cases might be useful. 

 

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WHO’s Myth Buster Site

There are all sorts of myths about Covid 19, many spread by people who should know better. The World Health Organization (WHO) has a myth buster site at    https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/advice-for-public/myth-busters?

From the Washington Post today, 

“Unfortunately, various strains of misinformation have been spreading in tandem with the coronavirus. Silver has been peddled as a cure-all for years, and lately by televangelist Jim Bakker as a coronavirus antidote. Other bogus covid-19 treatments include garlic soup, zinc, drinking bleach, dousing yourself in alcohol and blasting a hairdryer into your nostrils.

Here is an easy, if somewhat dispiriting, way to keep track of which cures are fake: all of them. 

“Anything you read about curing the virus will be false,” The Post wrote in a recent article. “There is no specific medicine recommended to prevent, treat or cure covid-19.” Avoid contact with others as much as possible, wash your hands properly and consult a doctor before trying any advice you read on the Internet or hear from a friend. We recommend the World Health Organization’s coronavirus myth buster page.

We also know of no evidence that the virus was engineered, despite rumors to the contrary. The best research we know of suggests that it originated in bats or another animal and mutated to infect humans, similar to many other viral outbreaks.

These sorts of conspiracy theories have spread by the millions on social media, and a State Department report suggested that some of them are being spread maliciously and intentionally to sow fear and discord. Don’t fall for it.”

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